NHL
In Season · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 5 games
Last refresh Nov 1, 2026 at 12:03 PM EST
WPG4-7-3–
CAR11-2-2–
1:00 PM ETLenovo Center
MIN9-3-3–
WSH8-4-0–
3:30 PM ETCapital One Arena
UTA9-5-0–
PHI3-8-4–
4:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena
EDM10-2-2–
NYR7-6-1–
6:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden
OTT9-5-1–
ANA5-7-1–
8:00 PM ETHonda Center
⭐ Projected Winners (5)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game using xGF/xGA blended with prev-season actuals, +0.25 expected-goal home-ice bump.
CAR ★★
WPG @ CAR · 1:00 PM ET
CAR +3.1 expected-goal edge at home · S. Skinner (2.97 GAA) vs P. Kochetkov (1.66 GAA) · CAR ST edge / CAR missing Hall, Nikishin vs Namestnikov, Bjugstad · VALUE -280 (10pts over market) · tightened (market cap +10; raw 90%)
84%win prob
UTA ★
UTA @ PHI · 4:00 PM ET
UTA +1.8 expected-goal edge on the road · K. Vejmelka (3.13 GAA) vs D. Vladar (3.26 GAA) · 3d rest / PHI missing Ristolainen, Tippett vs Marino, Carcone · PHI 4-6 with rest edge · VALUE -175 (5pts over market) · tightened (road -6; raw 75%)
69%win prob
NYR —
EDM @ NYR · 6:00 PM ET
NYR +0.6 expected-goal edge at home · M. Tomkins (3.1 GAA) vs D. Garand (2.69 GAA) · 5d rest / B2B / NYR missing Shesterkin, Veleno vs Howard, Hyman · NYR 2-4 at home vs B2B opp · EDM 4-9 on B2B · NYR 2-6 with rest edge · VALUE -125 (5pts over market)
61%win prob
MIN —
MIN @ WSH · 3:30 PM ET
MIN +1.4 expected-goal edge on the road · J. Wallstedt (2.14 GAA) vs L. Thompson (2.78 GAA) · WSH missing Desharnais, Sandin vs Spurgeon, Faber · VALUE +110 (10pts over market) · tightened (road -6, market cap +10; raw 69%)
58%win prob
ANA —
OTT @ ANA · 8:00 PM ET
ANA +0.3 expected-goal edge at home · J. Johansson (4.04 GAA) vs L. Brossoit (3.1 GAA) · B2B / ANA ST edge / ANA missing Terry, Mintyukov vs Burakovsky, Foegele · OTT 9-8 on B2B · ANA 2-3 with rest edge · VALUE -102 (7pts over market)
55%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to Watch
★★★ 75+ Elite★★ 55-74 Strong★ 15-54 LeanEdge = confidence index, not hit probability
Overs
Evan Bouchard EDM
Pts o0.5 · L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.2 per game
OVEREdge 61 ★★
Connor McDavid EDM
Ast o0.5 · L10 100%Over in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.0 per game
OVEREdge 60 ★★
Sebastian Aho CAR
Pts o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 53 ★
Evan Bouchard EDM
Ast o0.5 · L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 53 ★
Clayton Keller UTA
Pts o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.9 per game
OVEREdge 51 ★
Alex Ovechkin WSH
SOG o1.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.8 per game
OVEREdge 44 ★
Owen Tippett PHI
SOG o1.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.5 per game
OVEREdge 42 ★
Porter Martone PHI
SOG o1.5 · L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.7 per game
OVEREdge 42 ★
Blake Coleman MIN
SOG o1.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.3 per game
OVEREdge 36 ★
Anders Lee UTA
SOG o1.5 · L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.9 per game
OVEREdge 28 ★
Matt Boldy MIN
Pts o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 51 ★
Adam Fox NYR
Pts o0.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.3 per game
OVEREdge 49 ★
Quinn Hughes MIN
Ast o0.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 42 ★
Leon Draisaitl EDM
Ast o0.5 · L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
OVEREdge 36 ★
Adam Fox NYR
Ast o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.2 per game
OVEREdge 32 ★
Tristan Luneau ANA
G o0.5 · L10 20%Over in 2 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
OVEREdge 25 ★
Kirill Kaprizov MIN
G o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
OVEREdge 17 ★
Leon Draisaitl EDM
G o0.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.9 per game
OVEREdge 7 ★
Unders
Drew Helleson ANA
G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 ★★
Dylan DeMelo WPG
G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 ★★
Jonas Brodin MIN
G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 ★★
Dylan Samberg WPG
G o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 57 ★★
Marcus Pettersson NYR
G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 57 ★★
Vasily Podkolzin EDM
SOG o2.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.5 per game
UNDEREdge 23 ★
Jason Dickinson EDM
SOG o1.5 · L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
UNDEREdge 19 ★
Jonas Brodin MIN
SOG o1.5 · L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.2 per game
UNDEREdge 16 ★
Ryan Leonard WSH
SOG o2.5 · L10 40%Under in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.6 per game
UNDEREdge 15 ★
Alexis Lafrenière NYR
SOG o2.5 · L10 40%Under in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.4 per game
UNDEREdge 15 ★
Nicolas Deslauriers CAR
Pts o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.3 per game
UNDEREdge 49 ★
Drew Helleson ANA
Pts o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 43 ★
Mario Ferraro WPG
Pts o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 40 ★
Philip Tomasino OTT
Pts o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 40 ★
Cole Koepke WPG
Pts o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 39 ★
Frank Vatrano ANA
Ast o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 54 ★
Cole Koepke WPG
Ast o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 53 ★
Nicolas Deslauriers CAR
Ast o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 53 ★
Isak Rosén WPG
Ast o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 49 ★
Michael McCarron MIN
Ast o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 47 ★
🥅 Goalie Props · Saves
★★★ Edge 10+★★ 5-9★ 2-4Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged book probability, in points
Stuart Skinner WPGWPG vs CAR · Proj 27.0 saves · SV% .899 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Pyotr Kochetkov CARCAR vs WPG · Proj 20.3 saves · SV% .919 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jesper Wallstedt MINMIN vs WSH · Proj 24.0 saves · SV% .916 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Logan Thompson WSHWSH vs MIN · Proj 26.1 saves · SV% .903 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Karel Vejmelka UTAUTA vs PHI · Proj 21.7 saves · SV% .881 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Dan Vladar PHIPHI vs UTA · Proj 26.7 saves · SV% .888 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
M. Tomkins EDMEDM vs NYR · Proj 22.8 saves · SV% .895 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Dylan Garand NYRNYR vs EDM · Proj 22.9 saves · SV% .899 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jonas Johansson OTTOTT vs ANA · Proj 22.8 saves · SV% .861 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
L. Brossoit ANAANA vs OTT · Proj 24.1 saves · SV% .895 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Projection = expected shots faced (opponent shots/game and shots allowed/game, blended with the goalie's own shots faced per start) x save percentage shrunk toward .900 by shots faced. Probabilities from a Poisson distribution on projected saves. Lines via SportsGameOdds (DraftKings, ESPN BET). Starters refresh with the confirmed-starter checks - a saves prop only counts if he starts.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets
Connor McDavid EDM
Over 0.5 assists
5/5Last 5
Trevor Zegras PHI
Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Cole Perfetti WPG
Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Neal Pionk WPG
Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Drake Batherson OTT
Over 0.5 points
5/5Last 5
Barrett Hayton UTA
Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from this season's game logs against today's lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📋 Model Record85-52 · 62%
85-52Moneyline record · 62%
57-22Starred picks · 72%
| Date | Game | Pick | Model | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | CBJ @ DAL | DAL ★ | 72% | 1-3 | W |
| Oct 31 | CGY @ COL | COL ★ | 72% | 2-5 | W |
| Oct 31 | TOR @ VAN | TOR ★ | 69% | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 31 | PIT @ MTL | MTL | 64% | 4-5 | W |
| Oct 30 | WPG @ FLA | FLA ★ | 75% | 2-5 | W |
| Oct 30 | SEA @ CGY | CGY | 56% | 2-6 | W |
| Oct 29 | VAN @ SJS | SJS ★ | 69% | 2-3 | W |
| Oct 29 | CHI @ DET | DET | 64% | 1-4 | W |
| Oct 29 | BUF @ ANA | BUF | 59% | 7-6 | W |
| Oct 29 | NYI @ MIN | MIN ★★ | 83% | 4-3 | L |
Every graded moneyline pick this season, wins and losses, from the model results log. Past results do not guarantee future ones.
Data Sources
- Lines: PropLine consensus
- DvP: shotpropz.com
- xG: MoneyPuck
- Stats: NHL official API
- Hit rates on last-10 (this season + backfill from 2025-26)