NHL

In Season · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 4 games
Last refresh Nov 4, 2026 at 8:59 AM EST
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🏒 Games⭐ Projected Winners👀 Props to Watch🥅 Goalie Props🎯 100% Cheatsheet📋 Model Record📊 Hit Rate Matrix
OTT
OTT9-6-1–
BUF7-4-3–
7:30 PM ETKeyBank Center
BUF
CHI
CHI4-10-1–
FLA8-5-2–
7:30 PM ETAmerant Bank Arena
FLA
SJS
SJS7-8-1–
LAK4-7-2–
10:00 PM ETCrypto.com Arena
LAK
CGY
CGY7-8-0–
SEA8-5-1–
10:00 PM ETClimate Pledge Arena
SEA
⭐ Projected Winners (2)＋

Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.

Criteria: 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game using xGF/xGA blended with prev-season actuals, +0.25 expected-goal home-ice bump.

FLA ★★ CHI @ FLA · 7:30 PM ET FLA +2.1 expected-goal edge at home · S. Knight (3.28 GAA) vs J. Markstrom (2.5 GAA) · FLA ST edge / FLA missing Marchand, Barkov vs Byram, Kane · VALUE -250 (10pts over market) · tightened (market cap +10; raw 81%)
78%win prob
LAK — SJS @ LAK · 10:00 PM ET LAK +0.5 expected-goal edge at home · Y. Askarov (2.92 GAA) vs D. Kuemper (3.65 GAA) · 3d rest / SJS ST edge / LAK missing Zuccarello, Fiala vs Chernyshov, Wennberg · LAK 1-5 with rest edge
57%win prob

Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.

👀 Props to Watch
★★★ 75+ Elite★★ 55-74 Strong★ 15-54 LeanEdge = confidence index, not hit probability
Overs
Connor Bedard CHI Pts o0.5 · L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.2 per game
OVEREdge 58 ★★
Drake Batherson OTT Pts o0.5 · L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.4 per game
OVEREdge 51 ★
Brady Tkachuk FLA Pts o0.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.6 per game
OVEREdge 50 ★
Tage Thompson BUF Pts o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.3 per game
OVEREdge 47 ★
Rasmus Dahlin BUF Pts o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.9 per game
OVEREdge 42 ★
Anton Frondell CHI SOG o1.5 · L10 40%Over in 4 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.2 per game
OVEREdge 36 ★
Kiefer Sherwood SJS SOG o1.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.3 per game
OVEREdge 32 ★
Vince Dunn SEA SOG o1.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.0 per game
OVEREdge 27 ★
Artemi Panarin LAK SOG o2.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 3.2 per game
OVEREdge 21 ★
Josh Doan BUF SOG o1.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.8 per game
OVEREdge 21 ★
Macklin Celebrini SJS Ast o0.5 · L10 40%Over in 4 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.5 per game
OVEREdge 24 ★
Connor Bedard CHI Ast o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
OVEREdge 22 ★
Matthew Tkachuk FLA Ast o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.6 per game
OVEREdge 22 ★
Rasmus Dahlin BUF Ast o0.5 · L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.7 per game
OVEREdge 14 ★
Brady Tkachuk FLA Ast o0.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
OVEREdge 13 ★
Sam Reinhart FLA G o0.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
OVEREdge 4 ★
Unders
Zach Whitecloud CGY G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 68 ★★
Kevin Bahl CGY G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 66 ★★
Jacob Middleton CGY G o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 64 ★★
Alex Vlasic CHI G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 ★★
Ian Cole CHI G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 58 ★★
Kaapo Kakko SEA SOG o1.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
UNDEREdge 29 ★
Matvei Gridin CGY SOG o2.5 · L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.4 per game
UNDEREdge 20 ★
Tim Stützle OTT SOG o2.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.2 per game
UNDEREdge 17 ★
Joel Farabee CGY SOG o2.5 · L10 40%Under in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.1 per game
UNDEREdge 16 ★
Teuvo Teravainen CHI SOG o1.5 · L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
UNDEREdge 16 ★
Garnet Hathaway FLA Pts o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 48 ★
Jordan Greenway CHI Pts o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 48 ★
Kevin Bahl CGY Pts o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 47 ★
Zack Ostapchuk SJS Pts o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 47 ★
Jacob Middleton CGY Pts o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 45 ★
Zack Ostapchuk SJS Ast o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 56 ★★
Cole Smith CHI Ast o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 52 ★
Cole Schwindt FLA Ast o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 50 ★
Jordan Greenway CHI Ast o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 50 ★
Garnet Hathaway FLA Ast o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 50 ★
🥅 Goalie Props · Saves
★★★ Edge 10+★★ 5-9★ 2-4Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged book probability, in points
Samuel Ersson OTTOTT vs BUF · Proj 24.5 saves · SV% .866 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Colten Ellis BUFBUF vs OTT · Proj 22.3 saves · SV% .880 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Spencer Knight CHICHI vs FLA · Proj 27.0 saves · SV% .894 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jacob Markstrom FLAFLA vs CHI · Proj 19.9 saves · SV% .890 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Yaroslav Askarov SJSSJS vs LAK · Proj 26.3 saves · SV% .901 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Darcy Kuemper LAKLAK vs SJS · Proj 24.6 saves · SV% .878 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Dustin Wolf CGYCGY vs SEA · Proj 24.4 saves · SV% .862 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Joey Daccord SEASEA vs CGY · Proj 27.0 saves · SV% .880 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE

Projection = expected shots faced (opponent shots/game and shots allowed/game, blended with the goalie's own shots faced per start) x save percentage shrunk toward .900 by shots faced. Probabilities from a Poisson distribution on projected saves. Lines via SportsGameOdds (DraftKings, ESPN BET). Starters refresh with the confirmed-starter checks - a saves prop only counts if he starts.

🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Drake Batherson OTT Over 0.5 points
5/5Last 5
Connor Bedard CHI Over 0.5 points
5/5Last 5
Berkly Catton SEA Over 0.5 points
5/5Last 5
Roman Kantserov CHI Over 0.5 points
5/5Last 5

Perfect runs from this season's game logs against today's lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.

📋 Model Record94-57 · 62%＋
94-57Moneyline record · 62%
63-25Starred picks · 72%
DateGamePickModelScoreResult
Nov 3MIN @ PHIMIN ★71%4-2W
Nov 3EDM @ NJDNJD ★68%3-4W
Nov 3ANA @ VANANA ★68%5-4W
Nov 3DET @ TBLTBL ★67%2-4W
Nov 3DAL @ WSHDAL56%6-5W
Nov 3UTA @ TORUTA56%3-2W
Nov 3WPG @ MTLMTL ★73%5-4L
Nov 3CAR @ NSHCAR ★65%1-4L
Nov 2COL @ CHICOL ★66%5-2W
Nov 2DET @ FLAFLA58%5-3L

Every graded moneyline pick this season, wins and losses, from the model results log. Past results do not guarantee future ones.

Data Sources