NHL

In Season · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 5 games
Last refresh Nov 1, 2026 at 5:06 AM EST
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🏒 Games⭐ Projected Winners👀 Props to Watch🥅 Goalie Props🎯 100% Cheatsheet📋 Model Record
WPG
WPG4-7-3–
CAR11-2-2–
1:00 PM ETLenovo Center
CAR
MIN
MIN9-3-3–
WSH8-4-0–
3:30 PM ETCapital One Arena
WSH
UTA
UTA9-5-0–
PHI3-8-4–
4:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena
PHI
EDM
EDM10-2-2–
NYR7-6-1–
6:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden
NYR
OTT
OTT9-5-1–
ANA5-7-1–
8:00 PM ETHonda Center
ANA
⭐ Projected Winners (4)＋

Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.

Criteria: 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game using xGF/xGA blended with prev-season actuals, +0.25 expected-goal home-ice bump.

CAR ★★ WPG @ CAR · 1:00 PM ET CAR +3.2 expected-goal edge at home · N. Daws (3.11 GAA) vs P. Kochetkov (1.66 GAA) · CAR ST edge / CAR missing Hall, Nikishin vs Namestnikov, Bjugstad · VALUE -270 (10pts over market) · tightened (market cap +10; raw 91%)
83%win prob
UTA ★ UTA @ PHI · 4:00 PM ET UTA +1.8 expected-goal edge on the road · S. Cossa (3.2 GAA) vs D. Vladar (3.26 GAA) · 3d rest / PHI missing Ristolainen, Tippett vs Marino, Carcone · PHI 4-6 with rest edge · VALUE -155 (8pts over market) · tightened (road -6; raw 75%)
69%win prob
NYR — EDM @ NYR · 6:00 PM ET NYR +0.6 expected-goal edge at home · M. Tomkins (3.1 GAA) vs D. Garand (2.69 GAA) · 5d rest / B2B / NYR missing Shesterkin, Veleno vs Howard, Hyman · NYR 2-4 at home vs B2B opp · EDM 4-9 on B2B · NYR 2-6 with rest edge
61%win prob
MIN — MIN @ WSH · 3:30 PM ET MIN +1.4 expected-goal edge on the road · J. Wallstedt (2.14 GAA) vs L. Thompson (2.78 GAA) · WSH missing Desharnais, Sandin vs Spurgeon, Faber · VALUE +114 (10pts over market) · tightened (road -6, market cap +10; raw 69%)
56%win prob

Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.

👀 Props to Watch
★★★ 75+ Elite★★ 55-74 Strong★ 15-54 LeanEdge = confidence index, not hit probability
Overs
Evan Bouchard EDM Pts o0.5 · L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.2 per game
OVEREdge 61 ★★
Connor McDavid EDM Ast o0.5 · L10 100%Over in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.0 per game
OVEREdge 60 ★★
Sebastian Aho CAR Pts o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 53 ★
Evan Bouchard EDM Ast o0.5 · L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 53 ★
Adam Fox NYR Pts o0.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.3 per game
OVEREdge 49 ★
Owen Tippett PHI SOG o1.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.5 per game
OVEREdge 41 ★
Porter Martone PHI SOG o1.5 · L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.7 per game
OVEREdge 41 ★
Blake Coleman MIN SOG o1.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.3 per game
OVEREdge 36 ★
Mikhail Sergachev UTA SOG o1.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.2 per game
OVEREdge 28 ★
Anders Lee UTA SOG o1.5 · L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.9 per game
OVEREdge 28 ★
Quinn Hughes MIN Pts o0.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.3 per game
OVEREdge 48 ★
Drake Batherson OTT Pts o0.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.3 per game
OVEREdge 47 ★
Quinn Hughes MIN Ast o0.5 · L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 42 ★
Leon Draisaitl EDM Ast o0.5 · L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
OVEREdge 36 ★
Adam Fox NYR Ast o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.2 per game
OVEREdge 32 ★
Tristan Luneau ANA G o0.5 · L10 20%Over in 2 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
OVEREdge 25 ★
Kirill Kaprizov MIN G o0.5 · L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.8 per game
OVEREdge 17 ★
Leon Draisaitl EDM G o0.5 · L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.9 per game
OVEREdge 7 ★
Unders
Drew Helleson ANA G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 ★★
Dylan DeMelo WPG G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 ★★
Jonas Brodin MIN G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 59 ★★
Dylan Samberg WPG G o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 58 ★★
Marcus Pettersson NYR G o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 56 ★★
J.T. Miller NYR SOG o2.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.6 per game
UNDEREdge 20 ★
Jason Dickinson EDM SOG o1.5 · L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.1 per game
UNDEREdge 19 ★
Tim Stützle OTT SOG o2.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.2 per game
UNDEREdge 16 ★
Jonas Brodin MIN SOG o1.5 · L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games · averaging 1.2 per game
UNDEREdge 16 ★
Ryan Leonard WSH SOG o2.5 · L10 40%Under in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 2.6 per game
UNDEREdge 15 ★
Philip Tomasino OTT Pts o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 40 ★
Colton Dach EDM Pts o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 39 ★
Sam Colangelo ANA Pts o0.5 · L10 40%Under in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.5 per game
UNDEREdge 39 ★
Frank Vatrano ANA Pts o0.5 · L10 40%Under in 6 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.4 per game
UNDEREdge 33 ★
Isak Rosén WPG Pts o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 32 ★
Mark Jankowski CAR Ast o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 46 ★
Tyson Foerster PHI Ast o0.5 · L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 40 ★
Blake Coleman MIN Ast o0.5 · L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 40 ★
Pavel Mintyukov ANA Ast o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 39 ★
Kasperi Kapanen EDM Ast o0.5 · L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games · averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 37 ★
🥅 Goalie Props · Saves
★★★ Edge 10+★★ 5-9★ 2-4Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged book probability, in points
Nico Daws WPGWPG vs CAR · Proj 25.2 saves · SV% .913 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Pyotr Kochetkov CARCAR vs WPG · Proj 20.3 saves · SV% .919 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jesper Wallstedt MINMIN vs WSH · Proj 24.0 saves · SV% .916 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Logan Thompson WSHWSH vs MIN · Proj 26.1 saves · SV% .903 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Sebastian Cossa UTAUTA vs PHI · Proj 19.5 saves · SV% .855 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Dan Vladar PHIPHI vs UTA · Proj 26.7 saves · SV% .888 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
M. Tomkins EDMEDM vs NYR · Proj 22.8 saves · SV% .895 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Dylan Garand NYRNYR vs EDM · Proj 22.9 saves · SV% .899 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Samuel Ersson OTTOTT vs ANA · Proj 23.6 saves · SV% .866 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
L. Brossoit ANAANA vs OTT · Proj 24.1 saves · SV% .895 · Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE

Projection = expected shots faced (opponent shots/game and shots allowed/game, blended with the goalie's own shots faced per start) x save percentage shrunk toward .900 by shots faced. Probabilities from a Poisson distribution on projected saves. Lines via SportsGameOdds (DraftKings, ESPN BET). Starters refresh with the confirmed-starter checks - a saves prop only counts if he starts.

🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Connor McDavid EDM Over 0.5 assists
5/5Last 5
Trevor Zegras PHI Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Cole Perfetti WPG Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Neal Pionk WPG Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Drake Batherson OTT Over 0.5 points
5/5Last 5
Barrett Hayton UTA Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5

Perfect runs from this season's game logs against today's lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.

📋 Model Record81-52 · 61%＋
81-52Moneyline record · 61%
54-22Starred picks · 71%
DateGamePickModelScoreResult
Oct 30WPG @ FLAFLA ★75%2-5W
Oct 30SEA @ CGYCGY56%2-6W
Oct 29VAN @ SJSSJS ★69%2-3W
Oct 29CHI @ DETDET64%1-4W
Oct 29BUF @ ANABUF59%7-6W
Oct 29NYI @ MINMIN ★★83%4-3L
Oct 29MTL @ DALDAL ★★81%5-2L
Oct 29OTT @ LAKOTT63%5-6L
Oct 29WSH @ NSHNSH60%4-3L
Oct 28PHI @ WSHWSH ★74%2-5W

Every graded moneyline pick this season, wins and losses, from the model results log. Past results do not guarantee future ones.

Data Sources