NHL
In Season · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 11 games
Last refresh Nov 3, 2026 at 5:11 AM EST
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UTA9-6-0โ
TOR8-6-2โ
7:00 PM ETScotiabank Arena
WPG4-8-3โ
MTL9-3-2โ
7:00 PM ETCentre Bell
DET7-5-3โ
TBL8-3-2โ
7:00 PM ETBenchmark International Arena
STL7-6-1โ
NYR7-7-1โ
7:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden
MIN10-3-3โ
PHI4-8-4โ
7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena
VGK9-5-2โ
PIT5-7-2โ
7:00 PM ETPPG Paints Arena
DAL8-5-1โ
WSH8-5-0โ
7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena
COL9-5-1โ
CBJ5-7-0โ
7:00 PM ETNationwide Arena
EDM11-2-2โ
NJD9-5-0โ
7:30 PM ETPrudential Center
CAR12-2-2โ
NSH5-4-5โ
8:00 PM ETBridgestone Arena
ANA6-7-1โ
VAN3-12-1โ
9:00 PM ETRogers Arena
โญ Projected Winners (8)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. โ = 65-74%, โ โ = 75-84%, โ โ โ = 85%+.
Criteria: 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game using xGF/xGA blended with prev-season actuals, +0.25 expected-goal home-ice bump.
MTL โ
WPG @ MTL ยท 7:00 PM ET
MTL +1.7 expected-goal edge at home ยท S. Skinner (3.36 GAA) vs J. Fowler (1.84 GAA) ยท MTL missing Matheson, Montembeault vs Namestnikov, Bjugstad ยท MTL 8-8 with rest edge ยท VALUE -192 (10pts over market) ยท tightened (market cap +10; raw 74%)
73%win prob
MIN โ
MIN @ PHI ยท 7:00 PM ET
MIN +2.5 expected-goal edge on the road ยท J. Wallstedt (2.06 GAA) vs D. Vladar (3.23 GAA) ยท MIN ST edge / PHI missing Ristolainen, Grebenkin vs Spurgeon, Faber ยท VALUE -175 (10pts over market) ยท tightened (road -6, market cap +10; raw 83%)
71%win prob
CAR โ
CAR @ NSH ยท 8:00 PM ET
CAR +1.4 expected-goal edge on the road ยท P. Kochetkov (1.49 GAA) vs J. Saros (2.94 GAA) ยท NSH ST edge / CAR missing Nikishin, Staal ยท NSH 4-6 with rest edge ยท tightened (road -6; raw 71%)
65%win prob
ANA โ
ANA @ VAN ยท 9:00 PM ET
ANA +1.2 expected-goal edge on the road ยท L. Brossoit (3.0 GAA) vs L. Merilรคinen (3.31 GAA) ยท ANA ST edge / VAN missing Chytil, Thomas vs Greer, Terry ยท VAN 5-6 with rest edge ยท tightened (road -6; raw 68%)
62%win prob
NJD โ
EDM @ NJD ยท 7:30 PM ET
NJD +0.6 expected-goal edge at home ยท M. Tomkins (1.01 GAA) vs C. Hellebuyck (1.5 GAA) ยท 3d rest / EDM ST edge / NJD missing Casey vs Hyman, Levi ยท NJD 10-6 with rest edge
60%win prob
TBL โ
DET @ TBL ยท 7:00 PM ET
TBL +0.5 expected-goal edge at home ยท D. Tarasov (1.75 GAA) vs A. Vasilevskiy (3.0 GAA) ยท B2B / TBL missing Girgensons, Gourde vs Johansson, Larkin ยท TBL 5-1 at home vs B2B opp ยท DET 3-11 on B2B ยท TBL 9-5 with rest edge ยท market likes opp -265 (12pts under)
58%win prob
DAL โ
DAL @ WSH ยท 7:00 PM ET
DAL +0.8 expected-goal edge on the road ยท J. Oettinger (1.63 GAA) vs L. Thompson (2.93 GAA) ยท DAL ST edge / WSH missing Desharnais, Sandin vs Capobianco, Back ยท DAL 6-4 with rest edge ยท VALUE -108 (6pts over market) ยท tightened (road -6; raw 62%)
56%win prob
COL โ
COL @ CBJ ยท 7:00 PM ET
COL +0.7 expected-goal edge on the road ยท S. Wedgewood (3.48 GAA) vs J. Greaves (3.11 GAA) ยท B2B / COL ST edge / COL missing Manson, L'Heureux ยท CBJ 7-3 at home vs B2B opp ยท COL 7-8 on B2B ยท CBJ 13-3 with rest edge ยท tightened (road -6; raw 61%)
55%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
๐ Props to Watch
โ
โ
โ
75+ Eliteโ
โ
55-74 Strongโ
15-54 LeanEdge = confidence index, not hit probability
Overs
Connor McDavid EDM
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 100%Over in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 2.0 per game
OVEREdge 64 โ
โ
Mitch Marner VGK
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 100%Over in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.5 per game
OVEREdge 63 โ
โ
Quinn Hughes MIN
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.2 per game
OVEREdge 56 โ
โ
Clayton Keller UTA
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 54 โ
William Nylander TOR
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.0 per game
OVEREdge 52 โ
Porter Martone PHI
SOG o1.5 ยท L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.6 per game
OVEREdge 37 โ
Moritz Seider DET
SOG o1.5 ยท L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 2.0 per game
OVEREdge 36 โ
Blake Coleman MIN
SOG o1.5 ยท L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 2.3 per game
OVEREdge 36 โ
Sean Walker CAR
SOG o1.5 ยท L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 2.4 per game
OVEREdge 30 โ
Anders Lee UTA
SOG o1.5 ยท L10 50%Over in 5 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.8 per game
OVEREdge 30 โ
Evan Bouchard EDM
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.4 per game
OVEREdge 52 โ
Quinn Hughes MIN
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 70%Over in 7 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.9 per game
OVEREdge 46 โ
Evan Bouchard EDM
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 90%Over in 9 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.2 per game
OVEREdge 44 โ
Nikita Kucherov TBL
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.1 per game
OVEREdge 44 โ
Leon Draisaitl EDM
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.0 per game
OVEREdge 44 โ
Tristan Luneau ANA
G o0.5 ยท L10 20%Over in 2 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.2 per game
OVEREdge 30 โ
Kirill Kaprizov MIN
G o0.5 ยท L10 80%Over in 8 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.9 per game
OVEREdge 19 โ
Leon Draisaitl EDM
G o0.5 ยท L10 60%Over in 6 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.9 per game
OVEREdge 11 โ
Nathan MacKinnon COL
G o0.5 ยท L10 40%Over in 4 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.4 per game
OVEREdge 10 โ
Connor McDavid EDM
G o0.5 ยท L10 40%Over in 4 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.6 per game
OVEREdge 7 โ
Unders
Matt Roy WSH
G o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 61 โ
โ
Adam Wilsby NSH
G o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 61 โ
โ
Reid Schaefer NSH
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 61 โ
โ
Braden Schneider NYR
G o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 โ
โ
Brett Kulak COL
G o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 โ
โ
Michael Rasmussen DET
SOG o1.5 ยท L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 1.8 per game
UNDEREdge 26 โ
Nikita Kucherov TBL
SOG o3.5 ยท L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 3.0 per game
UNDEREdge 22 โ
Jake Guentzel TBL
SOG o3.5 ยท L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 2.8 per game
UNDEREdge 20 โ
Mitch Marner VGK
SOG o2.5 ยท L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 2.2 per game
UNDEREdge 17 โ
Leon Draisaitl EDM
SOG o3.5 ยท L10 30%Under in 7 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 3.2 per game
UNDEREdge 17 โ
Michael Brandsegg-Nygรฅrd DET
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 40%Under in 6 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.7 per game
UNDEREdge 43 โ
Matt Roy WSH
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 41 โ
Nils Lundkvist DAL
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 20%Under in 8 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.2 per game
UNDEREdge 39 โ
Drew Helleson ANA
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 38 โ
Ben Chiarot DET
Pts o0.5 ยท L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 38 โ
Tim Washe ANA
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 60 โ
โ
Declan Carlile PIT
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 57 โ
โ
Adam Edstrom NSH
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 10%Under in 9 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.1 per game
UNDEREdge 55 โ
โ
Liam Ohgren VAN
Ast o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 52 โ
Tom Willander VAN
G o0.5 ยท L10 0%Under in 10 of the last 10 games ยท averaging 0.0 per game
UNDEREdge 60 โ
โ
๐ฅ Goalie Props ยท Saves
โ
โ
โ
Edge 10+โ
โ
5-9โ
2-4Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged book probability, in points
Karel Vejmelka UTAUTA vs TOR ยท Proj 22.4 saves ยท SV% .872 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Sergei Bobrovsky TORTOR vs UTA ยท Proj 26.1 saves ยท SV% .885 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Stuart Skinner WPGWPG vs MTL ยท Proj 25.0 saves ยท SV% .887 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jacob Fowler MTLMTL vs WPG ยท Proj 24.9 saves ยท SV% .932 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Daniil Tarasov DETDET vs TBL ยท Proj 23.8 saves ยท SV% .927 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Andrei Vasilevskiy TBLTBL vs DET ยท Proj 22.9 saves ยท SV% .877 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Joel Hofer STLSTL vs NYR ยท Proj 25.0 saves ยท SV% .916 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Dylan Garand NYRNYR vs STL ยท Proj 22.9 saves ยท SV% .896 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jesper Wallstedt MINMIN vs PHI ยท Proj 23.0 saves ยท SV% .920 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Dan Vladar PHIPHI vs MIN ยท Proj 26.2 saves ยท SV% .885 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Carter Hart VGKVGK vs PIT ยท Proj 23.3 saves ยท SV% .893 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Arturs Silovs PITPIT vs VGK ยท Proj 24.8 saves ยท SV% .889 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jake Oettinger DALDAL vs WSH ยท Proj 20.8 saves ยท SV% .921 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Logan Thompson WSHWSH vs DAL ยท Proj 24.8 saves ยท SV% .898 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Scott Wedgewood COLCOL vs CBJ ยท Proj 26.0 saves ยท SV% .889 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Jet Greaves CBJCBJ vs COL ยท Proj 24.1 saves ยท SV% .883 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Matt Tomkins EDMEDM vs NJD ยท Proj 26.7 saves ยท SV% .964 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Connor Hellebuyck NJDNJD vs EDM ยท Proj 22.9 saves ยท SV% .923 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Pyotr Kochetkov CARCAR vs NSH ยท Proj 20.7 saves ยท SV% .929 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Juuse Saros NSHNSH vs CAR ยท Proj 27.7 saves ยท SV% .902 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Laurent Brossoit ANAANA vs VAN ยท Proj 22.0 saves ยท SV% .870 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Leevi Merilรคinen VANVAN vs ANA ยท Proj 27.1 saves ยท SV% .897 ยท Expected starterNo saves line posted yet
NO LINE
Projection = expected shots faced (opponent shots/game and shots allowed/game, blended with the goalie's own shots faced per start) x save percentage shrunk toward .900 by shots faced. Probabilities from a Poisson distribution on projected saves. Lines via SportsGameOdds (DraftKings, ESPN BET). Starters refresh with the confirmed-starter checks - a saves prop only counts if he starts.
๐ฏ The 100% Cheatsheets
Connor McDavid EDM
Over 0.5 assists
5/5Last 5
Neal Pionk WPG
Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Ryan Leonard WSH
Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Mitch Marner VGK
Over 0.5 points
5/5Last 5
Mitch Marner VGK
Over 0.5 assists
5/5Last 5
Vincent Trocheck UTA
Over 1.5 shots on goal
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from this season's game logs against today's lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
๐ Model Record87-54 ยท 62%
87-54Moneyline record ยท 62%
58-23Starred picks ยท 72%
| Date | Game | Pick | Model | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | WPG @ CAR | CAR โ โ | 83% | 0-7 | W |
| Nov 1 | MIN @ WSH | MIN | 56% | 5-1 | W |
| Nov 1 | UTA @ PHI | UTA โ | 69% | 3-6 | L |
| Nov 1 | EDM @ NYR | NYR | 61% | 4-1 | L |
| Oct 31 | CBJ @ DAL | DAL โ | 72% | 1-3 | W |
| Oct 31 | CGY @ COL | COL โ | 72% | 2-5 | W |
| Oct 31 | TOR @ VAN | TOR โ | 69% | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 31 | PIT @ MTL | MTL | 64% | 4-5 | W |
| Oct 30 | WPG @ FLA | FLA โ | 75% | 2-5 | W |
| Oct 30 | SEA @ CGY | CGY | 56% | 2-6 | W |
Every graded moneyline pick this season, wins and losses, from the model results log. Past results do not guarantee future ones.
Data Sources
- Lines: PropLine consensus
- DvP: shotpropz.com
- xG: MoneyPuck
- Stats: NHL official API
- Hit rates on last-10 (this season + backfill from 2025-26)